What are the Odds That My Event Has a Hole In One Winner?
Despite the seemingly improbable odds that a person can hit a golf ball into a hole in one shot from at least 150 yards, it happens all the time. And while the internet provides information on anything and everything you could possibly think of, most of the quoted odds for an amateur making a hole in one are wildly off. For example, we've seen odds ranging from 10,000 to 1 all the way up to 100,000 to 1. Luckily, our entire industry is predicated on knowing the exact odds, so we can confidently tell you that we think we know what we're talking about.
So, without further ado, the odds of an amateur golfer making a hole in one on a par 3 hole are roughly 12,500 to 1. Furthermore, the odds of a professional golfer making a hole in one on a par 3 hole are closer to 2,500 to 1. Armed with this information, we can surmise the odds of someone making a hole in one at your event. Assuming that your golf outing has a standard field of approximately 100 amateurs, and your golf course has the standard four par 3 holes, the chances of someone in your tournament making an ace are roughly 1 in 32. Not too bad, are they?
For a professional tournament, the chances are even more likely that a hole in one is made. Most PGA Tour events have 144 players, all of whom are professionals, typically. The chances that a hole in one is made during a single day of the tournament are roughly 1 in 4.5. Thus, the chances of a hole in one being made during a standard four-day PGA Tour event are roughly 1 in 1! Now you know those guys are good!
No doubt at some point in your life, you've heard a tale of two players making a hole in one on the same hole in the same event. Remarkably the chances of this feat happening are incredibly slim: roughly 32,000 to 1. Or perhaps you've heard about the golfer who made aces on consecutive par 3 holes: the odds of that feat run at nearly 156,250,000 to 1 as well, or roughly the same chances as winning the Powerball lottery.